Upcoming Talks and Events
Preliminary programme for autumn 2026:
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Michal Škop: Estimating the unknown: real-time election predictions and ecological inference
| Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 13:00 | |
| FAV/NTIS, meeting room UC143 (ground floor, orange part of the building, close to the dean's office). | |
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Two seemingly different problems share the same underlying structure: estimating something that cannot be directly observed from data that are either incomplete or available only in aggregated form. The first is real-time election forecasting: how to estimate national or municipal election results from partially counted precincts. We illustrate this using a model that we developed for Pilsen ahead of the October 2026 municipal elections, and discuss how such models are tested against historical election results to ensure well-calibrated uncertainty estimates and outcome probabilities using Monte Carlo simulations. The second is ecological inference: how to estimate a matrix of voter transitions between the 2025 parliamentary elections and the 2026 municipal elections using only aggregated precinct-level results, without knowing how any individual voter cast their ballot. We employ hierarchical Bayesian models, constrained least squares, and deterministic bounds, visualize the estimated voter flows using Sankey diagrams, and examine the limitations imposed by the ecological fallacy. Both problems ultimately address the same fundamental question: How much can we reliably infer from the available data, and how can we properly quantify the remaining uncertainty? |
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| Michal Škop is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Applied Sciences, University of West Bohemia in Pilsen. His interdisciplinary research combines data and statistical analysis, demography, politics, data journalism, as well as for example financial and insurance mathematics, and machine learning to focus especially on election data analysis and predictions. |
Martin Dvořák: LEAN 4 Course in English
| Every day from Thursday, August 13-28, 2026, at 17:00 contiunues in autumn/winter term on Fridays at 16:00 |
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| FAV/KMA computer lab UC234 (first floor, orange part of the building). | |
| Lean is an open-source programming language and proof assistant that enables correct, maintainable, and formally verified code and hence it is very useful for AI. The course will cover both functional programming and interactive theorem proving, with emphasis on the latter. Everybody is welcome to attend. No previous programming experience is required. The only prerequisite is being able to type on a keyboard. |






